000 AXNT20 KNHC 091023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 10N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W MOVING S OF 14N W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 10.5N FROM 54W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA THUS MASKING ITS IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH DRY STABLE AIR THUS THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N32W 9N52W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-37W...FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 42W-50W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 57W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING INTO ARKANSAS DIPS S OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND THE FAR NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE GULF E OF 93W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 86W. CARIBBEAN SEA... ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A SEMI-PERMANENT 1011 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER HIGH OVER FLORIDA EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N/18N. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 19N FROM 74W-77W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ELONGATED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 27N79W COVERING THE E GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N62W BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA N OF 30N FROM 65W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N33W SW THROUGH 30N49W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. $$ WALLACE