000 AXNT20 KNHC 090502 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 37W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SSMI DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 08/1800 UTC S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W MOVING S OF 15N W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 11N FROM 43W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA THUS MASKING ITS IDENTITY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN AREA OF INDUCED UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE E/W UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA...THUS MASKING ITS IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N25W 6N42W 9N50W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC TO 50W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 8N20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 10N14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 50W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA DIPS S OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND THE FAR NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO S TEXAS BUT DO NOT REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W COVERING THE E GULF E OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE GULF WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N86W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SHOWERS WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A SEMI-PERMANENT 1009 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER HIGH OVER FLORIDA EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N/18N. DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 19N FROM 72W-76W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W COVERING THE E GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA N OF 30N W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 26N34W CONTINUING SW THROUGH 30N53W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE REGION E OF 70W WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS W OF 70W. $$ WALLACE