000 AXNT20 KNHC 080617 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 15N33W TO 10N36W 5N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND IS CAUSING A LARGE POLEWARD PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. DESPITE ITS LARGE SIZE...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND DISORGANIZED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TOMORROW CROSSING MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 79W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE...COUPLE WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER E CUBA... HAITI AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND THEN WESTERN CUBA TOMORROW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 9N36W 6N45W 6N50W 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 31N82W 26N83W. MOST CONVECTION HAS NOW DISSIPATED OVER INLAND FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 25N AND W OF 92W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER S MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 90W. LIKEWISE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MERGE WITH A WESTWARD EXPANDING ATLANTIC RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG 28N. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY OVER LOUISIANA AND THE N GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 76W-84W. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N78W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-83W. ELSEWHERE...THE SRN CARIBBEAN HAS WLY FLOW S OF 13N. EXPECT CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION S OF 13N OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W. ELSEWHERE..A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 30N45W TO THE BAHAMAS AT 27N77W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E AT 25N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W. $$ FORMOSA