000
AXNT20 KNHC 070546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED FROM 18N28W TO 6N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE MAINLY  S 
OF THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N55W TO 5N56W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE WAVE ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 
54W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W MOVING W 15 KT.
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 11N30W 7N40W 6N53W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 
14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 37W-42W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E GULF IS CENTERED 
NEAR 28N87W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE GULF N OF 23N.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA HAS
DISSIPATED. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N87W. 
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SW MEXICO NEAR
NEAR 17N97W IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.
    
CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS OVER HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UPPER LOW PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED OVER THE SW MEXICO. TYPICAL TRADE WINDS SHOWERS 
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
ATLC RIDGE GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. DRY AIR ALOFT 
COVERS MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ. THERE IS SOME TROUGHING 
IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC...BUT OVERALL THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE 
NOT PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE 
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY E OF 40W.  

$$
DGS