000 AXNT20 KNHC 061037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17N24W TO 5N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THAT IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THESE ISLANDS. A 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 11N21W OR ABOUT 550 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MINIMAL TSTM ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 15N51W TO 6N52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 66W/67. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N1400W 6N37W 8N50W 10N61W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N88W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE SW LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS ARE MOVING INLAND. AN UPPER LOW OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 16N93W IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS MORE MOIST FURTHER W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SW MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N78W TO 27N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OFF THE N COAST OF FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 30N61W. FARTHER E THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH RIDGING STILL DOMINATING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLC FROM THE ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN 30W-65W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N25W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N38W TO 21N43W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS CENTERED NEAR 18N22W. THE HIGH PROVIDING A VERY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. $$ DGS