000
AXNT20 KNHC 051040
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N46W...OR ABOUT 1000 NM 
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 46W-47W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20N59W 6N59W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 55W 
AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...
ALONG 10N14W TO 6N30W 10N44W 11N57W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS 
FROM NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A STATIONARY 
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1015 MB LOW PRES NEAR TAMPA 
BAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO E OF 
AROUND 85W.
   
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE 
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WWD. A FEW SHOWERS 
ARE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W 
OF 80W AND ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE E TIP OF CUBA AND HAS BECOME 
MORE ELONGATED IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS 
CYCLONIC CENTER EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. 
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ANOTHER AREA 
OF SCATTERED TSTMS IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W 28N72W 29N80W TO 1015 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR TAMPA BAY. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE JUST N OF THE 
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. MID/UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA WITH TROUGH 
EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLC TO 
24N67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE ATLC 
FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 22N59W TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 28N45W TO 31N42W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
31N24W TO 26N37W.

$$
DGS