000
AXNT20 KNHC 041032
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N42W...OR ABOUT 1200 NM E OF 
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW 
AS DECREASED SOME WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 18N53W 4N53W MOVING W 15 KT. NO AREAS OF 
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 6N25W 10N40W 10N61W. EXCEPT FOR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SURFACE LOW NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
 
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE W COAST OF MEXICO ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN NE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE THE BIG BEND OF 
TEXAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A 1015 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NW FROM THE LOW NEAR MOBILE LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NW 
CARIBBEAN OFF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 20N86W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER HAITI. NO MAJOR 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NEAR THE CUBA AND HAITI AND THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY EXTENDS FROM 31N60W 26N73W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRES 
CENTER OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE 
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N38W TO 25N61W. MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS COVERS THE AREA FROM 35W TO 60W WITH A WEAK 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM 32N41W TO 
28N44W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM 10N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 65W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
31N27W TO 23N35W.

$$
DGS