000
AXNT20 KNHC 030549
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N45W TO 4N46W MOVING W 15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W/90W S OF 
22N MOVING W 10 KT. CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE IS DECREASING OVER 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT IS STILL ACTIVE OVER GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N25W 9N35W 10N46W 8N59W. A 
1014 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 8.1N36.5W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM E OF 
THE LOW CENTER.
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NE 
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
THE SE GULF W OF THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N84W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE 
OF THE CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SE 
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL 
GULF NEAR 28N88W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC 
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA.
    
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 
18N73W. LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA COMBINED SURFACE RIDGE OVER 
THE ATLC CONTINUES TO GIVE THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS GIVING THE AREA FAIR 
WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOME ISOLATED TRADE 
WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. 
          
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W 
ATLC W OF 75W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING INTO THE AREA FROM 
BERMUDA TO 29N75W TO THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 30N65 TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N59W SW TO 
HISPANIOLA. UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N54W TO 
TO 24N57W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID 
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ 
FROM 62W-30W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W.

$$
DGS