000 AXNT20 KNHC 011049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 13N31W TO 4N35W MOVING SLOWLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED-V PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. IT IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N25W 8N32W 7N45W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 29W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70-90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND N OF AXIS BETWEEN 42W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK 1018 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N87W. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF MOVING INLAND OVER TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82 AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA. THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE AREA NEAR 31N76W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE W ATLC...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH LOCATED OVER FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENCE PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W-CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 20N FROM 40W-70W WITH A PORTION DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW WITH ONE LOCATED IN THE REGION NEAR 28N59W WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK 1022 SFC LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE 06Z SURFACE MAP NEAR 27N60W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN IN THE NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY RELATED TO THIS WEAK LOW...THAT HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING MAINLY EWD TO 29N52W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 70W. PATCHES OF LOW/MID CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE CALLED THE BERMUDAS-AZORES HIGH...A SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SITS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE SUMMER TIME. HURRICANES THAT FORM IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TEND TO CIRCLE THIS HIGH. $$ GR