000 AXNT20 KNHC 301045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB CONFIRM THE WAVE OFF THE SURFACE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 94W/95W SOUTH OF 22N...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY COVERED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 89W AND 100W MAY BE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST...AND SOME MAY BE AIDED BY TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N14W TO 8N32W TO 6N40W TO 6N58W IN NORTHEASTERN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N111W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BETWEEN 86W AND 93W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR THE SURFACE FORECASTS BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... EVENTUALLY BECOMING PART OF A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA BY 72 HOURS. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. THE 500 MB PATTERN SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH A TROUGH ENTERING THE PICTURE FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS IN FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE ALONG 82W STARTS OUT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND IT RETURNS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA...IN THE AREA TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN PANAMA. THE ITCZ FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN REACHES 9N77W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PRESENT IN THAT PART OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SECOND AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N42W AND 24N45W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 32N40W 24N45W TROUGH. $$ MT