000 AXNT20 KNHC 281804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF DUST THAT EXTENDS E TO THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA. THE WAVE IS ALSO MOVING UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA OF A MID ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTION IS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 52W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S OF COSTA RICA ALONG 27N80W 17N82W 4N83W. IT IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE...N OF CUBA...HAS CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CRESTING OVER CUBA. THE SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W OVER SRN MEXICO S OF 23N MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 9N50W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 14W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 25W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-39W...AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 43W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT ELY TO SELY RETURN FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH NE OF BERMUDA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S FLORIDA ... AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG 99W. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 84W-94W. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 87W-88W...AND IS OVER THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 78W-81W. RIDGING WITH WLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W. ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N26W. ELY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-80W. A TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N48W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N FROM THIS UPPER HIGH TO BEYOND 30N30W. $$ FORMOSA