000 AXNT20 KNHC 272355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W 12 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA E OF A MID ATLC UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 9N WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE...AND S OF 10N WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE WAVE. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE IN THE UPPER FLOW ALONG A PLUME WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N45W TO 22N35W. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE ALONG 11N63W 15N55W TO NEAR 27N43W. THE WESTERN EDGE OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ROTATING AROUND THE ATLC LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO NOTED ALONG 10N40W 17N43W 25N38W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 25N MOVING W AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO MOVING UNDER THE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE. THE UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W...AND ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE FILLING WITH TIME...IS STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY AN UPPER RIDGE IS CRESTING ALONG POINTS 24N80W 31N75W WHICH IN TURN IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG 80W FROM 20N TO 27N. PEAK HEATING IS OVER AND CONVECTION IS DECREASING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W TO THE S OF 25N MOVING W AT 12 KT. LIKE THE EASTERLY WAVES TO ITS E...THIS WAVE IS ALSO MOVING W ALMOST IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR 20N90W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING NE ALONG 26N90W 24N82W 20N80W. SCATTERED CONVECTION FLARED DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING WITHIN THIS UPPER ENVELOPE OF DIFFLUENCE BUT IS NOW DISSIPATING. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N16W 7N29W 8N58W WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ALONG...AND TO THE S OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 26W...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED WITHIN 60 NM N AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 27N TO 40W WHERE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W DESCRIBED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED W OF THE WAVE ALONG 44W...ROUGHLY FROM FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER CYCLONES ARE CENTERED NEAR 28N83W AND 20N89W. UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS DOMINATES THE NW PORTION WHILE UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS E ACROSS OLD MEXICO INTO THE SW PORTION. THE RESULT IS NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF W OF 90W...AND ELY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA E OF 90W. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PARAGRAPHS FOR DETAILS ON TWO EASTERLY WAVES OVER THE SE PORTION. OTHERWISE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED, THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA TO A CREST ALONG 15N88W 20N75W 15N62W. THE RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW W OF 75W AND WLY FLOW E OF 75W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED W OF 80W AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 70W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 15N E OF 80W AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 70W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE DETAILS ABOVE. FAST MOVING ELY TRADE WIND CUMULUS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGING IS NOW DOMINATING THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 67W. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATLC BETWEEN 65W AND 45W IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 24N50W. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH...WITHIN 440 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 27N45W 11N63W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE ATLC ALONG 31N14W TO 22N24W...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OF AFRICA ALONG 17N TO NEAR 18N21W. THE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUBTROPICS E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A WAVE NEAR E FLORIDA. $$ NELSON