000 AXNT20 KNHC 271826 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 37W-43W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 24N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF CUBA. A GOOD POTION OF THE CONVECTION HOWEVER IS ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER LEVEL INTERACTION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE BAHAMAS...STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 70W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 22N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 86W-88W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 8N40W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 26W-33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 37W-43W... AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 43W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT ELY TO SELY RETURN FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH N OF BERMUDA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING FLORIDA... AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BOTH TROPICAL WAVES HAVE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH BOTH TROPICAL WAVES OVER FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 81W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE N COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 84W-86W. A PATCH OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W DOMINATING THE NW CARIBBEAN. RIDGING WITH WLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB HIGH IS N OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N64W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. ELY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES FROM 20N-30N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N47W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N34W. $$ FORMOSA