000 AXNT20 KNHC 261742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE ABC ISLANDS/NORTHERN VENEZUELA. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO FROM 19N23N BETWEEN 63W-68W. A PATCH OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. CONVECTION IS FLARING BETWEEN E CUBA AND JAMAICA AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N30W 8N35W 8N50W 6N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS E OF 16W...AND WITHIN 120-140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF WITH A TROUGH REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THE LOW/TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. DOMINATES THE REGION GIVING THE AREA E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THESE MODERATE WINDS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. UPPER FLOW W OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN E CUBA AND JAMAICA AND OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ AND A TROPICAL WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE ATLC RIDGE LOCATED N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING BRISK ELY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING WWD ACROSS THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. CLOUD LINES OR STREAMERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES UNDER THE ELY WIND FLOW. TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE W TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS MAINLY N FROM THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-70W. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N48W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 10N55W. VERY DRY AIR IS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH. A JET STREAM BRANCH LIES SOUTH AND E OF THE LOW/TROUGH ADVECTING A PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BEYOND 31N41W. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE OVER THE W ATLC. THE FIRST ONE...IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND LIES ALONG 76W/77W. THE SECOND ONE IS AN EXTENSION OF A STATIONARY FRONT AND GOES FROM 31N60W TO 28N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES HIGH WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N38W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL ATLC. $$ GR