000 AXNT20 KNHC 252357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 4N30W TO 13N26W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM 4N TO 10N WITHIN 120 NM W AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN THE CLOUD AREA E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 6N64W TO 20N63W AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE FROM 16N TO 13N...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF THE WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE OVER INTERIOR S AMERICA. SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED WITHIN 700 NM E OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 18N AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. CONVECTION FLARED OVER JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS DISSIPATING AT THE MOMENT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE ONLY TRADE WIND CUMULUS IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N WITHIN 300 NM OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N23W 8N32W 6N41W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N21W AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 18N99W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS TO NEAR 27N97W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CENTRAL GULF ARE DOMINATED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N85W TO 23N88W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF. CONVECTION WAS ALSO ENHANCED OVER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW SPREADING SE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES IS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. ELY RETURN FLOW IS AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL AND W GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH...TUTT..EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER NW FLOW W OF 80W AND SW FLOW E OF 80W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE OVER THE NW PORTION...AND IS MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION THAT FLARED OVER CUBA THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS ALSO FLARED OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INCREASING E OF 65W AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE PARAGRAPH ABOVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N69W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N74W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A WEAK TROUGH LIES ALONG 24N74W 30N75W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 26N44W WITH A TROUGH S TO NEAR 15N52W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N61W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N54W. THE BROAD REMNANTS OF FRONT ARE NOTED FROM 31N60W TO 27N70W. A MOISTURE PLUME... ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 21N71W 27N67W TO BEYOND 32N54W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W AND WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N59W 31N41W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OF AFRICA TO NEAR 17N27W. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. $$ NELSON