000 AXNT20 KNHC 251746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 14N25W TO 4N29W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS TILTED FROM 17N60W TO 10N62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN/BRITISH ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 6N35W 7N50W 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-90 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN WITHIN 60-80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 96W WHERE THERE IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE E GULF BUT MAINLY N OF 25N. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE GULF. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION GIVING THE AREA E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... N TO NW UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SPILLING INTO THE BASIN FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N78W. DRY UPPER AIR HAS SPREAD SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. A THIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE EPAC ITCZ. THE COMBINATION OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING WWD ACROSS THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 31N52W. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 14N55W. A JET STREAM BRANCH LIES SE OF THE LOW AND RUNS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 16N40W. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE OVER THE W ATLC. ONE...REMNANTS OF A WEAK SFC LOW IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 24N TO 28N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE SECOND ONE IS AN EXTENSION OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. IT IS ALONG 31N61N 27N64W 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES HIGH WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR 39N37W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS. ACCORDING TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS...AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS TO THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF 70W AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. $$ GR