000
AXNT20 KNHC 240507
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR 
12N18.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 19W-26W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48/49W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WEAK 
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
BEHIND THE WAVE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-49W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W S OF 14N 
MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. POSITION IS 
BASED ON CONTINUITY. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W TO 
THE E PACIFIC MOVING W 15-20 KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE 
E PACIFIC.  

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N30W 6N40W 7N50W AND INTO 
GUYANA NEAR 8N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
21W-25W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 
28N90W. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS 
CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF FROM 22N-26N WEST OF 
95W. ALOFT...FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N93W IS 
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS FAIRLY 
TRANQUIL UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHER CARIBBEAN TURNING NWLY 
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 14N87W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA. CONVECTION FROM 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY 
CLOUD FREE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1013MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 
28N74W. DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E OF THE LOW IS 
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N 
BETWEEN 67W-72W.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF 
25N BETWEEN 52W-62W EXTENDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE 
AREA. A 1029 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
37N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EAST OF 
50W. ALOFT...FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N58W IS 
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS NE ACROSS THE 
WEST/CENTRAL ATLC.  

$$
WADDINGTON