000 AXNT20 KNHC 230502 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 3N-10N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 23N BETWEEN 82W-88W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 3N23W 7N38W 9N45W 8N51W 9N58W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA... HINTING AT THE NEXT POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 6N-11N E OF 18W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N24W TO 4N36W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 45W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SW MEXICO ACROSS THE W GULF TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE AREA W OF 90W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE SE GULF INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A SMALL 1012 MB LOW REMAINS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 28N83W IN THE E GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF FORT MYERS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LAGUNA MADRE MEXICO TO JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE 1016 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA AND A 1017 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR THE LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER FEATURE IS ALSO ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A 1007 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF E PANAMA/COLOMBIA. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BROUGHT IN WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 29N W OF 60W EXTENDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST S OF BERMUDA ALONG 30N71W TO JUST N OF THE 1012 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA N TO NEAR 27N77W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH TO THE SE NEAR 23N63W. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH 250 NM S OF THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N50W THEN W TO 25N75W. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE