000 AXNT20 KNHC 191715 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A NEW SURGE OF DRY STABLE AIR WITH AFRICAN DUST IS JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS ALSO MOVING W AT 15 KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-33W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO HAS A SURGE OF DRY STABLE AIR WITH AFRICAN DUST JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT EXTENDS E TO 30W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 58W-64W. A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 15N... RUNNING FROM ERN HONDURAS THROUGH NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER ERN NICARAGUA WITHIN 15 NM OF 14N84W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N40W 7N60W. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-33W...FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 35W-40W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW FROM THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 30N...THUS 10-20 KT SELY TO SLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. ON SHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MEXICAN GULF COAST W OF 94W AND THE ENTIRE N GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 30N97W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 75W WITH 20 KT TRADEWINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W DUE TO THE ITCZ ALONG 9N. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W HAS TROPICAL MOISTURE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N50W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 70W. EXPECT NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND ITCZ ALONG 9N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W. A 1016 MB LOW IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 26N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 55W-57W. A 1023 MB HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N48W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NLY FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-70W. A SMALL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N47W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 40W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 35W. $$ FORMOSA