000 AXNT20 KNHC 191107 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE IN THE ITCZ OR AWAY FROM THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE STRADDLES THE SURINAME/GUYANA BORDER FROM 3N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE...MOVING ACROSS GUYANA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...INTO BRAZIL...AND MOVING TOWARD EASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...RUNNING FROM EASTERN HONDURAS THROUGH NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...THAT DO NOT APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE...ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 17N FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. AN EARLIER AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W IN MEXICO AROUND 19/0600 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WARMED UP AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 6N27W TO 5N38W TO 6N48W TO 7N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...7N30W 4N40W 5N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM WEST TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO 23N109W JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE RIDGE. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 700 NM EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE FROM A 1022 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N73W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 20N...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM VENEZUELA PUSHING THE HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 74W...THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. THE AREA EAST OF 74W IS COVERED BY A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W TO 14N68W TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THERE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WEAKENING TROUGH...SPREADING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 77W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM EASTERN PANAMA TO WESTERN PANAMA...IN THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS...THROUGH NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 24N70W TO 20N70W. A REMNANT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-COLOMBIA GUAJIRA PENINSULA FROM 24 HOURS AGO REMAINS...MUCH MORE SUBTLE RIGHT NOW. A SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS...FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N61W TO 26N66W 25N70W 26N78W IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA JUST NORTH OF GUYANA/SURINAME AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 22N50W BEYOND 32N43W. A PRONOUNCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 31N27W TO 21N31W TO 10N36W. $$ MT