000 AXNT20 KNHC 181049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOT SHOWN UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE OR INFRARED...FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS...NOT NEAR ANY AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 88W/89W. ONE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/THE GULF OF HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 8N10W IN NORTHERN LIBERIA...THROUGH SIERRA LEONE TO 7N20W 7N30W AND 7N40W TO 8N47W...7N51W 7N60W. ONE SMALL AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE RIDGE. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN RUNNING FROM NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TO FLORIDA FOR ALL OF LAST WEEK. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KT AT 18/0600 UTC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO A LITTLE BIT WEST OF LOS MOCHIS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N114W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W UNDER THE RIDGE. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 20N...EXCEPT FOR THE AREA EAST OF 62W/63W WITH MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THERE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 74W...THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. THE AREA EAST OF 74W IS COVERED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W TO 14N68W TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THERE. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TAKEN PLACE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT NOTHING IS HAPPENING NOW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS FROM LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF 18N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE EASTERN U.S.A. DURING THE LAST WEEK NOW PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 26N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 20N72W. THE DEEP LAYER FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N65W TO 25N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N70W 27N66W 30N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 13N49W TO 22N54W BEYOND 32N48W. THIS RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N46W. A LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N27W JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 25N26W BEYOND 32N23W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N59W-TO-20N72W TROUGH...IS AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N52W. $$ MT