000 AXNT20 KNHC 170524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 35W-44W. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N22W 8N40W 5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 45W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 27W-35W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 52W-67W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SPREADING HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE GULF W OF 85W LEAVING MUCH OF THE GULF DRY AGAIN TONIGHT. A SMALL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N86W TO ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NW AND SEPARATING FROM THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE S OF 27N E OF 83W AND S OF 24N FROM 83W-89W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 83W. AN UPPER RIDGE NOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NE ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 74W. THIS AREA IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS AN AREA OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DIPS S INTO THE REGION N OF 27N W OF 70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N72W SW TO A 1016 MB LOW OVER THE NE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W CONTINUING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N64W GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N78W NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 30N71W. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE ATLC YESTERDAY HAS BECOME DIVIDED AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS BECOME CUT-OFF. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N57W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN... THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 23N44W...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC DIPS S TO 23N E OF 33W. ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE ATLC UPPER TROUGH IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N15W JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N32W. THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF 65W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY UPPER AIR WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E OF 70W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 25N61W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N48W THUS KEEPING MOST OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE