000
AXNT20 KNHC 160552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. 
WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED WITH A SLIGHT INVERTED-V SIGNATURE OVER A 
WIDE AREA. CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ. 

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG 68W S OF 
15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO 
SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL 
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 13N MOVING W 
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRY AIR AND 
WITH THE NATURAL FLOW PATTEN OF THE AREA...NO SATELLITE 
SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL INLAND 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC REGION. 

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N22W 8N37W 5N54W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 
35W-54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-35W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 1N35W TO 
6N42W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA COVERING THE GULF W OF 85W LEAVING MUCH OF 
THE GULF DRY TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS 
OF YET...NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...BUT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVE NORTHWARD. 
THIS COUPLED WITH THE NORMAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA COULD GIVE S FLORIDA PLENTY OF SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF YET...NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DRAWING DRY UPPER 
AIR INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BAND OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 
FROM NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO OVER THE 
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N FROM 77W-86W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS 
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 70W. THIS AREA IS FREE OF 
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WIDELY ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BROUGHT IN BY THE MODERATE/ 
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER 
THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 62W TO OVER 
THE E US. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA 
INTO THE SW ATLC GIVING MUSH OF THE AREA DIFFLUENT FLOW AND 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF 
LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 
25N73W THEN E TO 27N64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER 
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH DRY UPPER AIR AND A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA E OF 65W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH 
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N51W AND A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE E 
ATLC NEAR 26N30W. THIS BROAD HIGH IS AIDING IN THE MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE