000 AXNT20 KNHC 151056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W POSSIBLY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE WAVE. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 16N ALONG 64W/65W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CONNECTED TO THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER COLOMBIA...ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF URABA. A CENTRAL AMERICA/EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W AT 15/0000 UTC HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS ALONG 94W/95W SOUTH OF 16N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W 7N26W 7N30W TO 5N56W IN NORTHERN SURINAME. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 8W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N35W 4N40W 3N51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF WEST OF 90W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WHOSE ORIGIN IS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 41N67W. AFTERNOON RAINS HAVE PREVAILED IN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST 24 HOURS AGO HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA OF WESTERN COASTAL CUBA WHERE IT FIRST DEVELOPED 4 TO 5 DAYS AGO. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS MADE A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE CIRCUIT DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE U.S.A. COVERING KANSAS... OKLAHOMA...AND TEXAS IS HELPING TO CONFINE THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT AND/OR DISSIPATING SHOWERS ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN WESTERN COASTAL CUBA...AFTER HAVING STARTED THERE 4 TO 5 DAYS AGO...MAKING THE CIRCUIT TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURNING NOW TO WESTERN CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 70W THANKS TO THE CONTINUED DIGGING OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY DURING AT LEAST THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 16N ALONG 64W/65W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CONNECTED TO THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER COLOMBIA...ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF URABA. TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ALONG A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES AND THE WESTERN COASTAL CUBA WATER VAPOR LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER ARE ADDING TO THE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY SITUATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W REACHING THE COAST OF CUBA AND IN ADJACENT WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE 15N WEST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH GOES FROM A 25N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N58W TO 11N67W NEAR THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STREAMS OVER THE TOP OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH...GOING WELL NORTH OF 32N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N68W 27N62W BEYOND 31N57W. SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. $$ MT