000 AXNT20 KNHC 140619 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N63W IN VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW IN VENEZUELA WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N68W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 15N... FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...IN CENTRAL HONDURAS... AND WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W INLAND TO GUATEMALA NEAR 15N90W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W TO 9N21W...8N24W 5N35W 5N42W 9N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 8W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN HELPING TO CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 93W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS NEAR 20N91W PRACTICALLY RIGHT AT THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. THE SHOWERS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N74W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N69W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THEN IT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND REACHES GRENADA AND/OR JUST SOUTH OF THERE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COVERS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 78W. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS MUCH MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 15N...FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...IN CENTRAL HONDURAS... AND WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W INLAND TO GUATEMALA NEAR 15N90W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND THE 40N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N70W 25N66W 30N63W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 23N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N56W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GRENADA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WHOLE...EAST OF THE 21N70W 30N63W PRECIPITATION...TO AFRICA. A SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N37W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. $$ MT