000 AXNT20 KNHC 111101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 25 TO 30 KT. THE WAVE SHOWED UP WELL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND NOW IT IS EASILY SPOTTED ON THE EARLIEST VISIBLE IMAGES. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST OF 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W ARE BEING AUGMENTED OR ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW IF THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING ANY PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 19N WEST OF 80W ARE PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE WESTERN CUBA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AREA MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 13N15W IN SENEGAL TO 7N27W 4N35W 3N44W 4N46W TO 3N52W NEAR THE BRAZIL/FRENCH GUIANA BORDER. A BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED FROM THE AFRICA COAST AND IT REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W... AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 60W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO NEAR 15N94W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 76W...IN BETWEEN THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE...AND NEAR THE ITCZ. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W UNDER THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 17N109W TO 24N107W BEYOND 30N100W IN TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF AND AWAY FROM THE CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THAT SAME CYCLONIC FLOW IN SOME WAY. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 41N62W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SAID CYCLONIC CENTER TO 33N66W 29N73W AND 28N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF 36N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 31N72W. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N60W 30N57W BEYOND 32N55W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N35W AND 23N40W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N25W 23N40W TROUGH. $$ MT