000 AXNT20 KNHC 102340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 14N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 25 KT. A WEAK 1012 SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES...AFRICAN DUST...AND A FAST MOVEMENT WILL HAMPER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AND A WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 69W-71W...HOWEVER THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE WAVE REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS NEAR THE WAVE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AN THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A SIMILAR CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 76W-78W. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW SW OF CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 7N25W 3N36W 3N50W 5N55W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE ...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 48W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1016MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF CENTERED NEAR 28N93W IS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AROUND AN UPPER LOW SW OF CUBA. NELY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE MEXICO AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SW OF CUBA IS ADVECTING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NE GULF FROM SEA-BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SFC WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF JAMAICA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF CUBA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW SW OF CUBA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR 18N83W. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SFC GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE BASIN RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...HOWEVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 81W...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL SFC PRESSURES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR 33N68W AND BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 31N76W EXTENDING TO THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THE W ATLC REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST JUST NORTH OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 66W-80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW SW OF CUBA. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB CENTER NEAR 34N42W RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW AROUND A VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER AFRICA IS TRANSPORTING SCATTERED PATCHES OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. $$ WADDINGTON