000 AXNT20 KNHC 101834 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 25 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N23.5W. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES...AFRICAN DUST...AND A FAST MOVEMENT WILL HAMPER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BASICALLY OVER TWO AREAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 22W-26W. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK SINCE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW VERY MUCH TURNING. A SECONDARY SURGE OF TROPICAL CLOUDS AND CONVECTION DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE IS FURTHER BACK ALONG 62W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS IN THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORMAL BACKGROUND FLOW AROUND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 76W-78W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 5N30W 4N50W 7N60W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 43W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FRONTAL LOCATION IS MOSTLY BASES ON SURFACE WIND SHIFTS. A 1016 MB HIGH IS IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS NEAR 30N101W. NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SFC GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE BASIN WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WRN CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 80W...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL SFC PRESSURES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICS...A 1026 MB HIGH IS THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURE NEAR 28N32W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER FROM 15N-32N BETWEEN 15W-55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST IN THE SRN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER CUBA. AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM8N-22N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N11W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-32N E OF 35W. $$ FORMOSA