000 AXNT20 KNHC 100604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ALONG 17/18W S OF 15N. THE WAVE IS MOVING JUST N OF DUE WEST NEAR 20 KT AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED FOR EARLY JUNE. A PAIR OF SFC LOWS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE NEAR 13N17W AND 8N18W. THE LATTER CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY THE FOCAL POINT. ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS NOT ON ITS SIDE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 18N-24N. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 19W-21W. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAR FROM OBVIOUS IN OBS OR SAT IMAGES...THEREFORE THE PSN REMAINS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 37W-42W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS STRUCTURE SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS PER THE SE FLOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ON THE SW PORTION OF AN ATLC RIDGE AXIS. THERE IS A WWD MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER VENEZUELA THOUGH...WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION NOTED INLAND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 63W-67W. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS MINIMAL. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 75W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS IN THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORMAL BACKGROUND FLOW AROUND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-82W...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 4N38W 3N45W 7N57W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE ...ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-37W...AND WITHIN 30NM OF THE AXIS W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 28N BETWEEN 91W-94W. THIS HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGER NOW RELAXED. SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO JUST N OF CUBA IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH 28N92W AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. SFC WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THOUGH THE RECENT 10/0040 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME ACCELERATION OF THE NE FLOW AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH A SMALL ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N E OF 93W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MON AROUND WEAK RIDGING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA. THE MOST NOTABLE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W. THIS IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER CUBA AND RIDGING FROM SOUTH AMERICA. LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF 18N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND WRN CUBA. A BIT TAMER TRADE WIND REGIME DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN. WRN CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE INTO SUN WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CUBA ARE OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF 25N W OF 73W. THERE IS ALSO SOME BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE VICINITY...THUS A SFC TROUGH IS ON THE MAP THROUGH ANDROS ISLAND TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE RULES THE WRN ATLC AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY WEEK. FARTHER NE...A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 38N62W. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N53W AND EXTENDS SW TO 24N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB CENTER NEAR 30N32W RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 40W TO 12N AND A SPRAWLING RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER MAURITANIA. THESE UPPER SYSTEMS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED PATCHES OF CIRRUS. $$ WILLIS