000 AXNT20 KNHC 091748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12Z SFC MAP OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 14W/15W S OF 13N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15-20 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH DEBATE ABOUT THE EXISTENCE OR PSN OF THIS WAVE WITH A LARGE AREA...ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE...OF WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO SOME DEGREE IN QSCAT DATA. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBLE LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 7N WHICH MAY BE ADDED TO THE 18Z ANALYSIS. SFC OBS...MOSTLY STATIONS OVER AFRICA...CLEARLY INDICATE THIS FEATURE WITH 24-H PRES DROPS IN THE 2-4 MB RANGE IN DAKAR AND SURROUNDING CITIES. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOME OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT SCATTERED MODERATE STILL EXISTS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-19W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NOT RECOGNIZABLE IN OBS OR SAT IMAGES...THEREFORE THE PSN IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LINEAR AND DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. AFTER A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION OVER AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS WEAKER BUT STILL ORGANIZED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 54W-61W. NEARLY ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS LIES TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS...SHEARED BY STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 73W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THERE IS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS TO JUST BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORMAL BACKGROUND FLOW AROUND THE OROGRAPHY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS OVER THE CARIB PORTION. MORE SIGNIFICANT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS OVER WRN COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIB LIKELY TIED TO THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N16W 5N24W 3N44W 4N52W 8N58W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION DISCUSSED ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 34W-41W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PRETTY QUIET SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WATERS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH SETTLING IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W. THIS PSN OF THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO RELAX...EXCEPT FOR THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE QSCAT AND SHIPS SHOW E TO SELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS CONFLUENT BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N100W AND AN UPPER LOW ABOVE WRN CUBA. THIS DRY FLOW IS AIDING IN THE WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF IS CURRENTLY CLEAR THERE IS SOME PRECIP NEAR THE EDGES. THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS S OF 24N MAY BE EXPERIENCING SOME DEBRIS SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER LAND. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PUSHING ACROSS EXTREME S FLA AND THE STRAITS ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY NEAR THE UPPER LOW. BOTH OF THESE AREAS MAY EXPAND SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE SW CARIB FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-82W. A 12 HOUR SAT IR LOOP SHOWS THIS CONVECTIVE WEATHER EXPANDING AND PUSHING W SUPPORTED BY THE ITCZ AND ENHANCED IN A PRONOUNCED UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. AN UPPER LOW HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SW NOW CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA. INSTABILITY NEAR THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS GENERATING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N E OF 80W...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY LIES FURTHER N OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE OTHER AREA OF ORGANIZED PRECIP IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AFTER THE WAVE PASSES. TRADES ARE MODERATE TODAY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TOMORROW BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGAN TO FIRE UP OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT IS DRIFTING TO THE SW OVER WRN CUBA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE RULES THE WRN ATLC WITH A 1018 MB CENTER NEAR 29N71W. FARTHER NE...A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 37N61W. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N54W AND EXTENDS SW TO 23N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB CENTER NEAR 27N32W RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 32N42W 10N39W AND A SPRAWLING RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER W AFRICA. THESE UPPER SYSTEMS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED PATCHES OF CIRRUS. $$ CANGIALOSI