000 AXNT20 KNHC 081033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30/31W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE MOVED OFF AFRICA LATE ON JUNE 4/EARLY JUNE 5. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT SINCE THEN. THE CURRENT PLACEMENT IS ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 31W-37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE PASSAGE WAS EVIDENT IN THE RAOBS AT CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA BETWEEN 07/1100 UTC AND 07/2300 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 50W-57W. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CONVECTION ARE BEING STRETCHED TO THE E WITH UPPER WLY FLOW S OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH VENEZUELA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 64/65W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWED A CLASSIC SIGNATURE ON THE TRINIDAD RAOBS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 7N. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90NM OF THE AXIS N OF 9N. MORE CONCENTRATED TSTM ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND ST. LUCIA. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE ABC ISLANDS AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...COSTA RICA...AND THE E PACIFIC ALONG 83/84W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH THE PSN BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30NM OF THE AXIS N OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE APPROACHING COSTA RICA FROM 10N-12N W OF 82W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 6N28W 5N40W 7N60W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-10N E OF 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-14W...AND WITHIN 180NM N/60NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-21W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRECEDING THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PUSHING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE FEATURE HOLDS TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ADDING TO THE MAP. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE ATLC DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SELY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...STRONGEST WRN PORTION WHERE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS FLOW HAS LED TO A 6-8' WIND WAVE/SWELL COMBO IN THE WRN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED IN THE SE GULF S OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...S OF 25N E OF 85W. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS NOTED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MUCH DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE NW GULF...N OF 25N W OF 88W. DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 25N DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EPAC AND CONVECTION OVER MEXICO. SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONGEST IN THE WRN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE E/SE SWELL IN THE WRN GULF WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BY SUN/MON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THIS MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA...LIKELY TIED TO THE ITCZ. LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS NUMEROUS TSTMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-80W. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO BETWEEN JAMAICA AND BELIZE. OTHERWISE...BESIDES FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER DESCRIBED ABOVE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT. UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY ANTICYCLONIC AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E ALONG 17N. THE EXCEPTION IS SW FLOW IN THE FAR SE PORTION AROUND TROUGHING FROM THE ATLC. UPPER CONFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING VERY DRY/STABLE AIR FROM 11N-15N W OF 67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 70W. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW NEAR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG 74W. A DYING COLD FRONT IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG 32N55W 27N64W. FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW ABOUT 450 NM SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SFC HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR 33N71W...WILL GRADUALLY TAKE OVER THE SFC PATTERN OVER THE WRN ATLC INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT INVERTED TROUGHING FORMING S OF THE HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR THE WRN BAHAMAS AND MOVING W ACROSS SRN FLORIDA. THIS IS A BYPRODUCT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SSW INTO SAT. MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 55W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N45W. THIS IS MAINLY JUST GENERATING PATCHES OF CIRRUS...BUT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-48W. LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY HAVE INDUCED THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 37W-45W. A TROUGH WAS THUS ADDED TO THE MAP ALONG 25N39W 16N42W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 32N13W 25N20W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS N OF THE AREA. $$ WILLIS