000 AXNT20 KNHC 080011 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE CLOUDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 49W-54W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 62/63W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAVE SOME DISTINCTIVE LOW LEVEL TURNING...EASILY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 54W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...PANAMA...AND THE E PACIFIC ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N20W 6N28W 4N35W 6N50W 6N56W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE STILL INLAND OVER THE CONTINENT. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY SELY 15-20 KT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N E OF 89W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW HAS ENHANCED THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA. WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE TO S FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS... RAIN...AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY INLAND OVER THE NE GULF STATES DUE TO SLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. SELY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DEPICTED IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER CUBA DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 62W/63W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA...THE NRN BAHAMAS...AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 67W-80W MAINLY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER N FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO DIPPING S INTO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N59W 30N63W 30N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N43W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N14W 27N20W 25N30W 26N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N AND W OF 75W. A RIDGE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N47W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 17N25W. $$ FORMOSA