000 AXNT20 KNHC 062357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-33W E OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED S OF 13N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-60W. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LOOP OF A DAYS WORTH OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING OVER COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W FROM GUATEMALA SOUTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SRN GUATEMALA S OF 15N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N20W 3N40W 3N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 13W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-33W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 70W-73W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28N. SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY SELY 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 85W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 86W-88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE SE GULF...AND FLORIDA FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. EXPECT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS...RAIN...AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. SURFACE FLOW IS SELY W OF 80W DUE TO THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DEPICTED IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES OVER CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM THE 20N-24N BETWEEN 75W-84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA MOSTLY INLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N40W. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S INTO ERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N20W 29N24W 27N30W 27N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N52W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ FORMOSA