000 AXNT20 KNHC 061028 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED JUST TO THE W OF AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 70W/71W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N26W 3N42W 9N52W 8N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 10N E TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 22W-27W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER SE US INTO THE FAR N GULF N OF 28N W OF 85W WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE GULF AND ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 88W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIA KEYS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 12N82W TO NW COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W INCLUDING THE COAST OF PANAMA. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 32N66W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH CLIPS THE N SECTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N61W PRODUCING LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 55W-63W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N54W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 16N40W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 30W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE N PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 32N25W 30N32W THEN NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N40W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE