000 AXNT20 KNHC 060538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED JUST TO THE W OF AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 69W/70W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N23W 3N36W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA W OF 12W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE GULF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-86W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A MID LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF WHICH PRODUCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY.OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 16N85W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA TO NW COLOMBIA. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 29N70W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH CLIPS THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N64W PRODUCING LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 61W-67W. CUT-OFF NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 26N51W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 14N41W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 30W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 630W WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 4N42W N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. $$ WALLACE