000 AXNT20 KNHC 060010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS FOUND NOR IS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SEEN. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 47W-54W. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 68W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LOOP OF A DAYS WORTH OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING OVER VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 16N...FROM HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 83W-89W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 2N40W 1N50W. THE ITCZ IS MOSTLY LACKING IN DEEP CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 18W-24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER W FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 25N. SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5-10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF. A SQUALL LINE IS ALONG THE COASTS OF SE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 30N92W TO 27N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 92W-96W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 78W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF TSTMS...RAIN...AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 70W TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. SURFACE FLOW BENDS MORE SE AND RELAXES IN THE NW PORTION AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE BASIN IS OVER CUBA WHERE NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DEPICTED IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 75W-82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PANAMA MOSTLY INLAND. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 63W-67W MOSTLY DUE TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N44W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-80W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENTERED NEAR 20N54W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 18N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ FORMOSA