000 AXNT20 KNHC 051025 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME INVERTED-V SIGNATURE HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 64W/65W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N32W 8N47W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N E OF 18W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 48W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE GULF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND N MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21NE OF 93W. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN/S MEXICO AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS W OF 80W AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N FROM 80W-84W. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC S OF 28N W OF 70W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 27N73W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERED THE W ATLC HAS RETREATED N. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N65W TO 32N62W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM OVER CUBA TO OVER THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 75W-84W. NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS BECOMING CUT-OFF AND EXTENDS FROM 28N47W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N52W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT ENCOMPASSES THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 16N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 75W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N49W. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 55W WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 10N56W TO 25N45W. $$ WALLACE