000 AXNT20 KNHC 041025 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AN UNIDENTIFIABLE. POSITION IS BASED SOLELY ON PERSISTENCE. THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER W BUT IS LOSING SQUALL LINE CHARACTERISTICS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION. MID-ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DOES NOT SHOW ANY CYCLONIC TURNING TO INDICATE THE WAVE AXIS. NO SHOWER/CONVECTION TO INDICATE THE WAVE AXIS EITHER. POSITION IS BASED SOLELY ON PERSISTENCE. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 16N MOVING W 5-10 KT. NO INDICATION IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 7N22W 5N29W 7N44W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 22W-26W...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 46W-55W...AND WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 12W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 84W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF INTO THE W ATLC E OF 85W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE GULF WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FAR W GULF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH A 1014 MB HIGH OVER THE E GULF NEAR FLORIDA BAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N W OF 75W TO JUST INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75 NM ALONG A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N82W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS W OF 70W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 68W WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE N AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N69W TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 29N. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE SEPARATES THE W ATLC UPPER TROUGH FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 25N45W 22N50W TO 21N56W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 10N38W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN THE E CANARY ISLANDS AND MOROCCO WSW TO 18N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 65W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N25W AND A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N52W. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. $$ WALLACE