000 AXNT20 KNHC 040016 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W APPEAR TO BE WITH A SQUALL LINE AWAY FROM THE AFRICA COAST. THIS SQUALL LINE IS SUPPOSED TO BE PRECEDING A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PUT ON THE 03/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS ALONG 12W. LET US WAIT A LITTLE BIT LONGER AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS FEATURE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS SUPPOSED TO BE ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 8N. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY REALLY DOES NOT SHOW ANY EXCEPTIONALLY GREAT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOMEONE TRACKED THE WAVE WHEN IT FIRST APPEARED NEAR AFRICA. NOTHING IS READILY APPARENT IN THE ITCZ SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IN ORDER TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF ANY WAVE AT THIS MOMENT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS SUPPOSED TO BE ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 8N. THE 02/1200 UTC RAWINSONDE DATA SHOW THAT THIS WAVE PASSED THROUGH CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY REALLY DOES NOT SHOW ANY EXCEPTIONALLY GREAT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N49W TO AT LEAST 13N57W AND 9N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W MAY BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO...AND POSSIBLY BY THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 18N. LOW CLOUDS ON THE LAST POSSIBLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THAT AREA HAVE SOME CYCLONIC SENSE TO THEIR MOVEMENT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS INFLUENCED RIGHT NOW BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 23N49W 9N59W TROUGH EAST OF 66W...AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF 66W. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT ARE SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 76W... THAT ARE MOVING WESTWARD. ...THE ITCZ... 9N15W 6N30W 6N34W 6N37W 4N51W AT THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN BRAZIL JUST EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N11W 7N23W 7N45W 5N51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN THE WAKE OF T.S. BARRY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT IN THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 28N74W TO 25N76W NEAR THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N76W TO 22N79W. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N90W. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EVERYTHING TO THE WEST OF 66W IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N82W. EVERYTHING TO THE EAST OF 66W IS EXPERIENCING CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA TO WESTERN VENEAZUELA AND ARE IN AN AREA OF SOME FORM OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N49W TO AT LEAST 13N57W AND 9N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W MAY BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO...AND POSSIBLY BY THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...NOW WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BARRY AS PART OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A FRONT....GOES FROM 37N76W TO 24N78W ITS BASE POINT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N49W TO AT LEAST 13N57W AND 9N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W MAY BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO...AND POSSIBLY BY THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS AT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N17W TO 10N35W. $$ MT