000 AXNT20 KNHC 031757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST S OF 12N ALONG 12W AND IS PRECEDED BY A SQUALL LINE THAT IS ALONG 16.5W AT THE MOMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 7N17W. THE WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS. THERE MAY BE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE AXIS PSN AFTER THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SAL IN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES THE ITCZ SLIGHTLY N IN THE VICINITY OF 35W WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE S OF 7N ALONG 35W ON THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WAVE PSN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRIOR TO REACHING THE COAST OF S AMERICA. A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY POSITIONED TO THE S OF 9N ALONG 51.5W INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AXIS SHOULD BE RELOCATED WESTWARD TO ALONG 55.5W AT 1200 UTC TODAY. THE WAVE AXIS PASSED THROUGH CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA AROUND 1200 UTC YESTERDAY WITH A GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE RAOB SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER LAND DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE STILL REMAINS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OVER THE ATLC WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED BY LOW CLOUD MOTION IN THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N ALONG 75W AT 12Z. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 12N78W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N45W 6N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS OBSERVED NEAR 7N18W...NEAR 7N35W AND NEAR 8N56W ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AND DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTES FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ALOFT THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF TS BARRY. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRES IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AND ONLY ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS IS NOTED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED TO THE S OF GRAND CAYMAN NEAR 17N81W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE SEA ELSEWHERE W OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING TSTMS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N77W...AND ALONG THE E PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR 16N72W. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY NLY CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 30N75W TO 23N80W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N74W 22N78W WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED TO THE N OF 25N ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPILLS S COVERING THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 72W AND 62W...ABOVE A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N55W RIDGING SW TO HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC...BETWEEN 60W AND 40W...IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 31N44W TRAILING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH SW TO NEAR 27N52W. A THIN BAND OF TSTMS WAS ENHANCED ALONG 22N52W 26N43W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE TO BEYOND 32N36W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 26N29W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W AND 20W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR THE CANARIES AT 27N18W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 34N24W RIDGING SW TO E CARIBBEAN. $$ NELSON