000 AXNT20 KNHC 021805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... BARRY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS OF THE 02/1500 UTC NHC ADVISORY. THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR TAMPA BAY AT 28.0N 82.5W AT 1500 UTC...MOVING NNE AT 20 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS BARRY GRADUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. BUOY 41012 JUST ENE OF ST. AUGUSTINE HAS BEEN REPORTING 30-40 KT GUSTS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SEAS NEAR 14 FT. LARGE S TO SE WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL SPREAD NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUN AND MON AS THE EXTRATROPICAL FORM OF BARRY INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THUS...A RIP CURRENT THREAT EXISTS...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO MONITOR THE UPPER AIR TIME SECTION AT CAYENNE IN THE FRENCH GUIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA S OF 10N AND W OF 40W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT...IF ANY...OF THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE VERSUS THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 5N43W 6N51W 8N60W. AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING THROUGH COTE DIVOIRE WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE. OTHER THAN THAT...VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LINGERING BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM BARRY ARE OVER THE ERN GULF MAINLY E OF 87W. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING NE THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND WILL BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR SHORTLY. HOWEVER...AN INTERESTING BYPRODUCT OF BARRY IS THE MODERATE E/SE SWELL SPREADING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF...IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE AT 10-11 SEC. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE FROM E TO W OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT PROPAGATES W AND SHOALS ALONG THE GULF COAST. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE NW GULF. SFC RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE FAR WRN GULF AS UPPER TROUGHING EXTEND S THROUGH THE ERN PORTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER JAMAICA AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND BARRY AND TRADE FLOW IN THE ERN CARIB. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO GIVING THIS ACTIVITY ADDITIONAL LIFT. SIMILAR TSTMS ARE OVER CENTRAL CUBA. OTHERWISE DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 75W. UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CARIB DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 19N78W. MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A BIT LIGHTER SE FLOW DOMINATES NW PORTION AND LIGHT/VARIABLES IN THE SW PORTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 72W. IN ADDITION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE SHARP TROUGH IN THE ERN GOMEX AND RIDGING IN THE WRN ATLC. A 1024MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST E OF BERMUDA. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH BARRY TO SET UP A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF SE WINDS OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ALONG 53W N OF 12N. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 51W-56W BUT OTHER THAN THAT IT IS ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES OF CIRRUS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR 29N47W EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE ENE TO NEAR 31N43W BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB SFC HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS IS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W. $$ WILLIS