000 AXNT20 KNHC 020002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM BARRY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24.5N 85.5W AT 01/2100 UTC...OR APPROXIMATELY 200 NM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...MOVING NE AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS PROVIDING DECENT SWLY SHEAR TO THE STORM ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION...AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 NHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE AND POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 43W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED TO THE N OF THIS FEATURE NEAR 10N43W...PROVIDING ELY SHEAR ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE ATLC. THE WAVE IS THEREFORE POSITIONED UPSHEAR...TO THE E OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N19W 4N33W 6N43W 4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM BARRY...DESCRIBED IN SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE...IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE STORM IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ALONG ROUGHLY 91W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE TROUGH AND N OF THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT AND HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF BARRY. HOWEVER...BARRY IS IN AN AREA OF SWLY SHEAR ALOFT E OF THE EWD MOVING TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ADVECTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM. MOREOVER...WHILE AN ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOWS BARRY IN AREA OF FAVORABLE 80 DEGREE PLUS WATERS...A COOLER WATERS WITH A 5 DEGREE SST GRADIENT IS EVIDENT TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN GULF THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT...AND INTO COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SUN. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC AND LOCAL NWS OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN...S OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND ON THE EDGE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE RESULTANT CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN IS ENHANCED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM T.S. BARRY IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE HONDURAN COAST. OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA SHOW FRESH SE TO S SFC FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER E...DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS PUSHING SWD INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...CURTAILING CONVECTION THAT AREA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AS BARRY LIFTS TO THE NE. ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC SHIFTS FURTHER S AHEAD OF BARRY SHIFTING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE ATLC FROM 20N TO 30N. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC...ALLOWING COPIOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE ANTILLES. BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ROUGHLY ALONG 55W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N48W TO 22N55W TO N OF PUERTO RICO. FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM 20N40W TO 30N30W...WITH A PARALLEL UPPER TROUGH TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB SFC RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC. ELY TRADES PERSIST S OF 20N...WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE WIND SPEEDS. AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EVIDENT OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED IS THE EMERGENCE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY OFF THE CAROLINAS SAT...WITH WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS INCREASING AND VEERING S. ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER TROP N ATLC AS THE WRN ATLC HIGH SHIFTS SE AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. SEE ATLC HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. $$ CHRISTENSEN