000 AXNT20 KNHC 011056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21.4N 85.6W. A TROUGH EXISTS FROM 25N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE L0W PRESSURE CENTER...TO 16N89W FROM BELIZE INTO GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATER NORTHEAST OF 19N80W 21N83W...SOME OF IT REACHING CUBA BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL IS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF CUBA...AND EVEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS ALSO...SOUTH OF 19N WEST OF 82W. THIS LOW CENTER/TROUGH FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AND TO PRODUCE RAIN FOR WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA. STAY TUNED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND ANY RELATED PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... FROM 7N10W AT THE COAST OF LIBERIA...TO 6N20W 5N30W 5N39W 5N41W 5N55W THROUGH NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA TO ITS BORDER WITH SURINAME. IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 50W...AND FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEST OF 90W. THE TROUGH STARTS FROM A SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N92W AND GOES TO 25N93W AND 19N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LEADS TO A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM FLORIDA TO CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE UNDER THE RIDGE EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STARTS IN FLORIDA AND MAKES ITS WAY FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND ALSO PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE WHOLE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS 20N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW BASED ON THE RELATION OF THE FLORIDA/CUBA RIDGE AND THE DEEP LAYER 32N51W 20N61W TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...INCLUDING AROUND AND ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ALL THE OTHER ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 14N79W APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY TO BECOME EVEN MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N56W TO 20N61W. THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N48W TO 20N62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N50W 25N53W 20N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N48W 20N62W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N23W TO 22N30W TO 18N37W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. $$ MT