000 AXNT20 KNHC 010555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W. A TROUGH EXISTS FROM 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE L0W PRESSURE CENTER... TO 15N86W IN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATER FROM HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND THE MEXICO/BELIZE COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHER SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATER FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND SOUTH OF CUBA. THIS LOW CENTER/TROUGH FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AND TO PRODUCE RAIN FOR WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA. STAY TUNED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND ANY RELATED PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... FROM 7N12W AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...TO 6N20W 5N30W 5N38W 5N40W 2N51W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 50W...AND FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEST OF 90W. THE TROUGH STARTS FROM A SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N92W AND GOES TO 25N93W AND 19N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LEADS TO A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM FLORIDA TO CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATIONS ARE UNDER THE RIDGE EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STARTS IN FLORIDA AND MAKES ITS WAY FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND ALSO PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE WHOLE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ONLY CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE AREA IS THE PRESENCE OF THE 21N61W SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW BASED ON THE RELATION OF THE FLORIDA/CUBA RIDGE AND THE DEEP LAYER 32N51W 20N61W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...INCLUDING AROUND AND ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ALL THOSE OTHER ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N56W TO 20N61W. THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N55W TO 21N63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N45W 27N51W 22N54W 20N61W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N53W 20N63WW SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N23W TO 22N30W TO 18N37W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. $$ MT