000 AXNT20 KNHC 010140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1005 MB...IS LOCATED ABOUT 70 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AT 19N87W. THIS LOW SITS ALONG AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE SRN GULF. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER... MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING N/NE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT FORMS...TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL ...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-86W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 38W/39W S OF 9N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WEAK WAVE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY ON SAT IMAGES WITH A HINT OF SOME LOW-MID LEVEL TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 33W-41W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 5N30W 4N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 7W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 15-20 KT SELY WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 5-10 KT WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 91W-93W MOVING NW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SRN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W DRIVING THE CONVECTION TO THE NW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL SURFACE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER CUBA...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO... AND FLORIDA...DUE TO THE YUCATAN LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE YUCATAN LOW TO NICARAGUA TO 12N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 83W-88W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 60W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...NW VENEZUELA...AND LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 71W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMAICA DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSIDERABLE BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF 78W. EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO DRIFT E FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE SAME AREAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 30N53W 20N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 57W-62W...AND FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 51W-56W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N24W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N BETWEEN J15W-50W. AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E OF 45W TO W AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-30W. WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 20W TO W AFRICA. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 16N23W. $$ FORMOSA