000 AXNT20 KNHC 310617 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND ANY RELATED PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... FROM 9N13W AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...TO 6N24W 5N34W 5N37W 4N44W 5N52W AT THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 5N10W TO 7N14W 7N19W... SOUTH OF 9N IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND FROM 6N TO 11N WEST OF 11W/12W IN THE AFRICA COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 27W... AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER BEYOND 32N. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LEADS TO A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM FLORIDA TO CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO LOUISIANA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE RIDGE...EAST OF 22N89W 28N86W 31N84W. SOME OF THE WEATHER IN THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI AREA MAY BE RELATED TO A SQUALL LINE THAT HAD MOVED INTO THAT AREA...BUT THAT HAS BEEN DYING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 88W FROM 16N NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS...OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HONDURAS NEAR 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS NEAR 13N97W AT 31/0300 UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH... EASILY SPILLING OVER INTO SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN/ AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO GOES FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS ITS ENDPOINT NEAR PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W. THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REACHES 20N64W NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS MEANS RAIN FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER RIGHT ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND/OR IN THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF THESE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 18N77W 16N69W 15N60W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N60W TO 20N64W. THE FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 26N60W TO 18N66W AT PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N52W 24N55W 20N59W 17N67W. THIS MEANS RAIN FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER RIGHT ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND/OR IN THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF THESE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 18N77W 16N69W 15N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N57W 18N66W SURFACE TROUGH. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N33W TO 14N45W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. $$ MT