000 AXNT20 KNHC 310020 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 33W/34W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DUE TO FAINT SATELLITE SIGNATURES. THE POSITION IS BASED MOSTLY ON CONTINUITY. CONVECTION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 5N30W 5N40W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 9W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 15W-18W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 30W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N89W 17N87W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY INLAND BETWEEN 87W-90W. SURFACE RIDGING WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 20 KT SELY WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 5-10 KT WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF LOUISIANA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 88W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 97W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL SURFACE MOISTURE AND RAIN TO MOVE OVER CUBA...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE EASTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 21N67W 18N72W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA TO BELIZE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 77W-87W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N BETWEEN 83W-93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...NW VENEZUELA...AND LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 70W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W. CONSIDERABLE BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF 77W. EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE SAME AREAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 33N56W 25N63W 19N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 52W-58W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N29W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N BETWEEN J15W-50W. AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E OF 40W TO W AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-40W. WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 30W TO W AFRICA. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N28W. $$ FORMOSA