000 AXNT20 KNHC 290005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 22W/23W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. BUOY 31006 NEAR 4N23W REPORTED SE WINDS 10 KT AT 2100 UTC...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THIS IS BECAUSE THE WAVE PASSED...OR JUST A BYPRODUCT OF THE NORMAL BACKGROUND FLOW SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 24W-30W. HAVE AGAIN PLACED THE WAVE ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THIS CONVECTION...WITH MODEST UPPER E TO SE FLOW OVER THE AREA SW OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER MALI. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 5N27W 2N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 2N-5N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 10N W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE GULF TONIGHT IS IN THE NW PORTION...OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS. LIGHTNING DATA...RADAR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 88W-95W. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE SFC SUPPORT IS LIMITED...ALTHOUGH SPEED CONFLUENCE IS NOTED IN THIS VICINITY WITH 15 TO 20 KT E/SE WINDS IN THE ERN GULF BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE IN THE FAR WRN PORTION. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 26N93W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N90W. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS IN THE ERN GULF...THAT GRADUALLY RELAX IN THE WRN PORTION AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF AND RIDGING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A SFC TROUGH REMAINS BETWEEN ERN CUBA AND PANAMA ALONG 20N78W 11N79W. A WEAK LOW MAY BE READDED ALONG THIS TROUGH AT 0000 UTC WITH THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 14N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-78W...THOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING ERN HISPANIOLA...NW PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF THE VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IN THE WRN ATLC. TYPICAL ELY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK EXCEPT THE SW PART WHERE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A QUASI STATIONARY 1025 MB SFC HIGH IS OFF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N73W. THIS IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A LARGER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 33N36W. THIS IS PRODUCING SIMILAR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES E OF 50W. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS IS SUPPORTING THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATCL ALONG 33N62W 25N66W 20N72W. A 1014 MB SFC LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE TROUGH NEAR 27N66W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPRTED BY A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LOW NEAR 28N69W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING HAS A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-67W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO 1010 MB AND MOVE NNE TO NEAR 30N64W BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. $$ WILLIS