000 AXNT20 KNHC 280552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 18W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN IN THE REGION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 16W-22W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 31W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 50W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 10-20 KT ELY FLOW. THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 96W-99W MOVING E. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NE MEXICO FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 98W-99W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 88W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N101W MOVING E. DIFFLUENCE FORM THIS LOW HELPED PRODUCE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 88W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO PANAMA NEAR 8N80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 77W-79W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 76W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N63W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 73W. A COL IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N72W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH TO ITS SE ALONG 30N60W 20N67W IS PRODUCE ABUNDANT 15-25KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE SFC TROUGHING...ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE MOISTURE RICH REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18W BETWEEN 50W-70W. THE E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N28W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 10N E OF 50W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 26N26W TO 18N40W BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING MUCH MORE THAN PATCHES OF CIRRUS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA