000 AXNT20 KNHC 280005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 16/17W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN IN THE REGION FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 14W-23W. A HINT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED JUST W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-5N. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT THE WAVE IS DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE CONVECTION GIVEN THE MID TO UPPER ELY FLOW OVER THE AREA...SW OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER MALI. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N22W 2N35W 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 300NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 48W...MAINLY OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGING FROM THE ATLC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 10-20 KT ELY FLOW THAT BENDS MORE SE IN THE NW PORTION. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE ELY WIND WAVES/SWELL FOR THE AREA...LARGEST IN THE MIDDLE GULF S OF 26N AND ALSO IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THERE IS A LITTLE CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD NW OF THE YUCATAN WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS ALONG WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING OVER W/CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN GULF HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BETWEEN 85W-95W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SFC RIDGING FROM THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE GULF INTO EARLY WEEK. UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE MIDDLE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF SFC TROUGHS DOMINATE THE WRN CARIB. THE FIRST IS BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND HONDURAS ALONG 23N86W 16N86W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NW CARIB N OF 17N W OF 83W. THIS SECOND TROUGH IS BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND PANAMA ALONG 19N79W 10N79W. A 1010MB SFC LOW IS ATTACHED NEAR 12N79W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 77W-79W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN 67W-78W. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIB WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEEK. MORE TYPICAL MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME TO DOMINATE THE ERN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON THE SW PORTION OF THE AZORES HIGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY 1025 MB SFC HIGH OFF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N73W IS INTERACTING WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH TO ITS SE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT 15-25KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE SFC TROUGHING...ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE MOISTURE RICH REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18W BETWEEN 50W-70W. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OLD FRONT NEAR 28N63W BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT NE...BUT HAS NOT HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD IN THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1031MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N32W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 10N E OF 50W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING MUCH MORE THAN PATCHES OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH EARLY WEEK. $$ WILLIS